Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals. 1 Corresponding Author: Dr. Samir KC, Research Scholar, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria, tel.: +43-2236-807-424, fax: +43-2236-71313, e-mail: [email protected]. 2 Dr. Bilal Barakat, Research Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA; and Research Scholar, Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences; e-mail: [email protected]. 3 Dr. Anne Goujon, Research Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA; and Research Scholar, Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences; e-mail: [email protected]. 4 Dr. Vegard Skirbekk, Leader, Age and Cohort Change Project, IIASA; e-mail: [email protected]. 5 Prof. Dr. Warren Sanderson, Departments of Economics and History, Stony Brook University, New York, USA; and Institute Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA; email: [email protected]. 6 Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Lutz, Leader, World Population Program, IIASA; Director, Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences; Professor of Applied Statistics, Vienna University of Economics and Business; and Professorial Research Fellow, Oxford Institute of Ageing; e-mail: [email protected] Samir KC et al.: Projection of populations by educational attainment 384 http://www.demographic-research.org